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Scenarios can’t predict the future, so what’s the point?


Fifteen years back when I was in College, my Grandfather was alive and very much at home. On an important morning (while going out for an interview for instance), just before my leaving home, he used to remark, “Son, this is not the way to leave home today. You should’ve started at least fifteen minutes earlier. Think about a possible traffic jam on your way, a bus break down, or a heavy shower slowing your movement” . At that age and time and I used to disregard such suggestions and go ahead with my plans. But now when I am doing this course on Scenario Planning, my mind goes back in time to see my Scenario Planner Grand father alive. Well, Scenarios can’t predict the future. In a dynamic world where complex systems interact with each other in chaotic ways, no human can ever attempt to do that. But still, as my Grand father did, it mentally prepares one to take on a sudden development. At a time where response times will be too short, a prior thinking about such a situation will definitely put one in lead.

1 comment:

Jaikiran said...

This is a good statement