Scenarios can’t predict the future, so what’s the point?

Fifteen years back when I was in College, my Grandfather was alive and very much at home. On an important morning (while going out for an interview for instance), just before my leaving home, he used to remark, “Son, this is not the way to leave home today. You should’ve started at least fifteen minutes earlier. Think about a possible traffic jam on your way, a bus break down, or a heavy shower slowing your movement” . At that age and time and I used to disregard such suggestions and go ahead with my plans. But now when I am doing this course on Scenario Planning, my mind goes back in time to see my Scenario Planner Grand father alive. Well, Scenarios can’t predict the future. In a dynamic world where complex systems interact with each other in chaotic ways, no human can ever attempt to do that. But still, as my Grand father did, it mentally prepares one to take on a sudden development. At a time where response times will be too short, a prior thinking about such a situation will definitely put one in lead.

Does Chaos Theory have some role in Scenario Planning

Reading articles about Scenario Planning and possible future scenarios, the concept of Chaos Theory crept my mind. Predicting possible futures in nature may be a bit difficult, i believe, due to the general chaotic nature of events. From the state of initial time, events can take any turn depending upon the nature of attractors. I got this diagram from the web (Image Courtesy: www.sciy.org) Sensitive dependency on initial conditions is an interesting way to think about possible futures. The below quote seems interesting too “In fact, the mere act of opening the box will determine the state of the cat, although in this case there were three determinate states the cat could be in: these being Alive, Dead, and Bloody Furious.” ― Terry Pratchett, Lords and Ladies

As i begin my mOOC journey with the University of Canterbury and OER Foundation

Yesterday was a different day altogether as my friend and a WE introduced me to the world of WE. As a person working in the field of higher education, i hopped in as soon as i heard about the forthcoming mOOC on 'Scenario Planning for Educators'. Scenario planning had crossed my mind several times as i did my small time research on Knowledge Management in Education, but it never occurred to me to learn that in a true sense. Thanks to my friend, i have taken myself to the next level. My interest in the course goes beyond a personal level as i am currently initiating a large programme meant to impart a new vigour to the Higher Education of the Kerala State through the 'Fostering linkages in Academic Innovation and Research' (FLAIR). FLAIR is an attempt to make the higher education in the highly literate state of Kerala future ready and its my sincere hope that my exposure to this cutting edge course will definitely help me deliver more.

#SP4Ed (2013.05) Scenario Planning for Educators - mOOC starts today

Scenario planning for educators (SP4Ed) is a free micro Open Online Learning Course (mOOC) offered by the e-Learning Research Lab at the University of Canterbury in collaboration with the OER Foundation Scenarios deal with a complex set of interrelated factors which typically play out over a considerable period of time. “ It’s easy to get lost in the ‘trees’ of these details and lose sight of the ‘forest’ — mastering the dynamic complexity essential to successful strategy. Here’s where the discipline of systems thinking finds its greatest advantage. By using the systems archetypes we can learn how to ‘structure’ the details into a coherent picture of the forces at play. ” —Peter Senge, 1994[1] Get to know about the course by logging on to www.wikieducator.org

Tacit Knowledge management

Capture and use of tacit knowledge in the form of skills, expertise and experience holds the key for future growth of institutions and individuals. Unseen knowledge that cannot be quantified far out weighs the explicit type and hence the popular expression "explicit islands in a tacit sea". If the cumulative knowledge of a professional is captured and documented, the entire work flow patterns of the world could change in a revolutionary manner. Efforts are now on in this direction and it is hoped that we would soon find ways to do this.